Profiles

Overview

Category Controls

Control which market categories each profile scans. Toggle categories enabled/disabled and set per-category mode (Sim or Live). Child categories inherit from parents unless explicitly overridden.

Profile:

Select a profile to view category settings

Trade Validation Rules

Rules validate trade decisions before execution. When a rule flags a trade, it goes to the Waiting queue in the Decisions tab for manual approval. Toggle rules on/off below.

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Position Triage Agent

The triage agent checks the NWS hourly forecast every hour for each event where you hold open weather positions. If any hourly forecast temp falls outside your covered brackets, it recommends selling. If the forecasted extreme exactly equals a boundary, it escalates to checking every 5 minutes. One scan per event covers all profiles. Toggle triage rules on/off below.

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How Live vs Dry-Run Mode Works

Standard profile runs in whichever mode the bot was started with.
• python main.py --dry-run → Simulated trades, no real money
• python main.py → Live orders on Kalshi with real money
Named profiles always run in simulation mode alongside the main bot. They mirror the same market scan but apply their own strategy settings and track results independently.

Create simulation profiles with different settings for A/B testing

Active	Name	Mode	Exchanges	Bankroll (K / P)	Open	Won / Lost	P&L	Key Settings	Actions

Service Connections

API keys and credentials used by the bot to connect to external services. Changes apply globally across all profiles.

Kalshi — Read-Only (Sim / Monitoring)

Kalshi API Key ?Read-only Kalshi API key for market scanning, balance checks, and position monitoring.

Kalshi Private Key ?PEM file for the read-only Kalshi API key.

Upload .pem

Kalshi — Read-Write (Live Trading) ?A separate Kalshi API key with order/trade permissions. Required for live-mode profiles to place real orders. If not set, live profiles will fail when attempting to trade.

Kalshi API Key (RW) ?Read-write Kalshi API key with order placement permissions.

Kalshi Private Key (RW) ?PEM file for the read-write Kalshi API key.

Upload .pem

Other Services

Gemini API Key ?Google Gemini key for AI-powered trade analysis.

Anthropic API Key ?Anthropic Claude key for AI analysis (optional alternative).

AccuWeather API Key ?AccuWeather key for weather market triage data.

Polymarket — Read-Only (Scanning / Monitoring)

Polymarket API Key ?Polymarket API key for cross-exchange market scanning.

Private Key (RO) ?Wallet private key for read-only CLOB operations (balance checks, position monitoring). Can be the same as RW if you don't need separation.

Funder Address (RO) ?Funder address for the read-only Polymarket wallet.

Signature Type (RO) ?0 = EOA, 1 = POLY_GNOSIS_SAFE, 2 = POLY_PROXY.

Polymarket — Read-Write (Live Trading) ?Separate wallet credentials with trading permissions for live order placement. If not set, the read-only wallet is used for trades.

Private Key (RW) ?Wallet private key with CLOB trading permissions for live order placement.

Funder Address (RW) ?Funder address for the read-write Polymarket wallet.

Signature Type (RW) ?0 = EOA, 1 = POLY_GNOSIS_SAFE, 2 = POLY_PROXY.

Settings Reference

Every setting the bot uses, explained in plain English. Click See Example → on any item to see how changing it affects real trades.

Strategy — How the Bot Picks Trades

Kelly Fraction

See Example →

Controls how much of your bankroll goes into each trade. A value of 0.25 means "bet 25% of what a pure math formula suggests," which is intentionally conservative. Raising it means bigger bets and faster growth — but also bigger losses when you're wrong.

Config key: strategy.kelly_fraction · Range: 0.05 – 1.0 · Default: 0.25

Min EV Threshold

See Example →

The minimum "edge" (expected return on investment) a trade must have before the bot will take it. At 3%, the bot only takes trades where it expects to earn at least 3 cents per dollar risked. Lowering it means more trades but thinner margins.

Config key: strategy.min_ev_threshold · Range: 0.01 – 0.20 · Default: 0.03

Max Options to Hedge

See Example →

The maximum number of brackets the bot can buy in a single dutch bet. If a weather market has 6 temperature brackets, setting this to 4 means the bot covers at most 4. More legs = higher win probability but lower profit per win.

Config key: strategy.max_options_to_hedge · Range: 2 – 10 · Default: 5

Coverage Threshold

See Example →

The minimum win probability required to take a trade. At 75%, the bot only enters positions where the combined probability of its covered brackets is at least 75%. Higher = safer but fewer qualifying trades.

Config key: strategy.coverage_threshold · Range: 50 – 99% · Default: 75%

Selection Priority

See Example →

When multiple bet sizes (K=3, K=4, K=5) all qualify, this decides which one the bot picks. Coverage picks the one most likely to win. Edge picks the one with the highest return per dollar. Coverage is safer; Edge is greedier.

Config key: strategy.selection_mode · Options: coverage, edge · Default: coverage

Min Options in Market

See Example →

Events with fewer brackets than this are skipped entirely. A market with only 2 or 3 options is harder to dutch profitably because you'd have to buy almost everything. Setting this to 4 ensures there's enough spread for the strategy to work.

Config key: strategy.min_options_in_market · Range: 2 – 10 · Default: 4

Long Tail Threshold

See Example →

The maximum probability allowed in the "uncovered tail" — the brackets the bot doesn't buy. At 0.25, the uncovered brackets can't represent more than 25% of total probability. This prevents the bot from leaving too much risk on the table.

Config key: strategy.long_tail_threshold · Range: 0.05 – 0.50 · Default: 0.25

Bet Sizing — How Much to Wager

Min Bet Size

See Example →

The smallest total position the bot will open. If Kelly sizing says to bet $0.50 but your minimum is $1.00, the bot skips the trade entirely rather than placing a sub-minimum bet. Prevents dust-sized positions that aren't worth the fees.

Config key: strategy.min_bet_size · Range: $0.01 – $100 · Default: $1.00

Max Bet Per Option

See Example →

Caps how much goes into any single bracket of a dutch bet. At $10, the bot can place at most 10 contracts on any one leg. This limits concentration risk — even if Kelly says to bet more, this ceiling prevents over-committing to one bracket.

Config key: strategy.max_bet_per_option · Range: $1 – $500 · Default: $10

Max Exposure Per Market

See Example →

The maximum total dollars the bot will have at risk in a single event, across all legs combined. At $25, a 5-leg dutch bet at $0.18 per leg can have at most 27 contracts ($25 ÷ $0.90/contract). Prevents any one event from being a blow-up risk.

Config key: risk.max_exposure_per_market · Range: $5 – $500 · Default: $25

Risk Management — Safety Guardrails

Daily Loss Limit

See Example →

If the bot loses more than this amount in a single calendar day, it stops trading for the rest of the day. At $50, after $50 in realized losses the bot goes idle until midnight UTC. This is a hard stop to prevent spiraling losses.

Config key: risk.daily_loss_limit · Range: $10 – $1000 · Default: $50

Max Open Positions

See Example →

Limits how many markets the bot can be invested in simultaneously. At 25, once you have 25 open positions, the bot won't enter new trades until some resolve. Prevents over-extending into too many markets at once.

Config key: risk.max_open_positions · Range: 1 – 100 · Default: 25

Cooldown After Losses

See Example →

If the bot loses this many trades in a row, it pauses for a cooldown period. At 3, three consecutive losses trigger a timeout. This prevents the bot from chasing losses during a bad streak, similar to a "tilt break" in poker.

Config key: risk.cooldown_after_losses · Range: 1 – 20 · Default: 3

Cooldown Minutes

See Example →

How long the bot stays paused after hitting the loss streak cooldown. At 15 minutes, the bot sits out for 15 minutes hoping market conditions change. Longer cooldowns are more conservative.

Config key: risk.cooldown_minutes · Range: 1 – 120 · Default: 15

Ignore Manual Positions

See Example →

When enabled, the risk gate only counts bot-placed trades toward limits like "max open positions." Your manual Kalshi trades aren't counted. When disabled, both bot and manual positions count toward risk limits, which is more conservative.

Config key: risk.ignore_manual_positions · Options: yes, no · Default: yes

Scanner — What Markets to Look At

Poll Interval

See Example →

How often (in seconds) the bot scans Kalshi for new opportunities. At 60 seconds, the bot checks once per minute. Shorter intervals find opportunities faster but use more API calls (and may hit rate limits).

Config key: scanner.poll_interval_seconds · Range: 10 – 600 · Default: 60

Min Market Liquidity

See Example →

Markets with volume below this threshold are skipped. At $100, the bot only looks at markets where at least $100 has been traded. Low-liquidity markets have wide spreads and might not fill your orders at the expected price.

Config key: scanner.min_market_liquidity · Range: $0 – $10,000 · Default: $100

Close Window Min (hours)

See Example →

Markets closing sooner than this many hours are skipped. At 1 hour, the bot won't enter trades on markets that resolve within the next 60 minutes. Prevents entering positions too close to expiry when the result is almost known and prices are volatile.

Config key: scanner.market_close_window_hours · Range: 0 – 48 · Default: 1

Close Window Max (hours)

See Example →

Markets closing further out than this many hours are skipped. At 144 hours (6 days), the bot ignores markets that resolve more than a week out. Keeps the bot focused on near-term events where forecasts are more reliable.

Config key: scanner.max_close_window_hours · Range: 6 – 720 · Default: 144

Welcome to Nostrabot

🎲 Strategy 1: Dutching

⚖️ Strategy 2: Cross-Exchange Arbitrage

🔁 The Pipeline

Welcome

Dutching

Arbitrage

Pipeline

Nostrabot

Kalshi Dutch Agent

Category Controls

Trade Validation Rules

Position Triage Agent

Profiles

Service Connections

Settings Reference

Strategy — How the Bot Picks Trades

Bet Sizing — How Much to Wager

Risk Management — Safety Guardrails

Scanner — What Markets to Look At

Tutorial

Welcome to Nostrabot

🎲 Strategy 1: Dutching

⚖️ Strategy 2: Cross-Exchange Arbitrage

🔁 The Pipeline

Welcome

Dutching

Arbitrage

Pipeline

Nostrabot

Kalshi Dutch Agent

Category Controls

Trade Validation Rules

Position Triage Agent

Profiles

New Simulation Profile

Strategy

Risk

Scanner

Exchanges

Profile Settings:

General

Risk

Scanner

Allowed Categories

Trade Types

Exchanges

Dutching Strategy

Strike Hunting Strategy

Service Connections

Settings Reference

Strategy — How the Bot Picks Trades

Bet Sizing — How Much to Wager

Risk Management — Safety Guardrails

Scanner — What Markets to Look At

Edit Global Defaults

Strategy

Risk

Scanner

Setting Example

Decision Detail

Position Detail

Near-Miss Detail

Analyze Event

Tutorial